Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

386.14 – 302.06

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

297 – 320

Prediction missed · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567 ±13.5

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 153.35Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 146.7Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 86.09Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 587 ±11.7

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 78.63Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 124.01Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 99.42Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4611, 6237, 5667

/ 100 compat

Projected

386.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4611, 6237, 5667

Auto

75.5 20%

Teleop

224.2 59%

Endgame

80.2 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2603, 2399, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2603, 2399, 1756

Auto

43.8 15%

Teleop

172.5 57%

Endgame

84.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score386.1pts

Blue projected score302.1pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.1
Score range: 259–429
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 617 vs event baseline 239.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567Season APEX587

75.5Auto43.8

224.2Teleop172.5

80.2Endgame84.4

65Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	64
teleop	176	146
endgame	47	105
foul	5	5
total	297	320

Result

Final score

297 – 320

Prediction missed · off by 53.5 pts

Match videos

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