Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
136.2 – 181.64
36%64%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
118 – 60
Prediction missed · off by 69.9 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.3 ±15
Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 53.71Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89
Season APEX 91.6Event APEX -Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86
Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 47.71Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.9 ±15.6
Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 89.43Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 142.5Event APEX -Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 57.43Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3814, 3484, 1736
57
/ 100 compatProjected
136.2 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 3814, 3484, 1736
Auto
30.1 22%
Teleop
73.1 54%
Endgame
33.0 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 72%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 379, 9152, 432
63
/ 100 compatProjected
181.6 pts
~2.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 379, 9152, 432
Auto
31.3 17%
Teleop
107.4 60%
Endgame
41.5 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 72%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 2.08
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score136.2pts
Blue projected score181.6pts
Red win probability36%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 72%, blue 74%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -45.4
- Score range
- 98–220
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
267.3Season APEX394.9
19.7Auto20.9
55.7Teleop90
26Endgame34.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 25 | 16 |
| teleop | 58 | 21 |
| endgame | 35 | 23 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 118 | 60 |
Result
Final score
118 – 60
Prediction missed · off by 69.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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