Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.27 – 30.66

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

356 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520.2 ±12.8

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 35.73Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 150.66Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 65.88Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.8 ±15.6

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 16.01Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2010The Lightning Bots

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 8.5Rank 50Record 0-9-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3484Short Circuit

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 6.15Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2172, 2338, 2603

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.3 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2172, 2338, 2603

Auto

54.4 22%

Teleop

126.4 51%

Endgame

65.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 451, 2010, 3484

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 451, 2010, 3484

Auto

6.9 19%

Teleop

-0.8 0%

Endgame

29.5 83%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score252.3pts

Blue projected score30.7pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 221.6
Score range: -9–292
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 223.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520.2Season APEX284.8

54.4Auto6.9

126.4Teleop-0.8

65.8Endgame29.5

34Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	19
teleop	199	20
endgame	112	15
foul	0	0
total	356	54

Result

Final score

356 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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