Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.38 – 240.06

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.1 ±18.2

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 61.75Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX 27.97Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9139Reserve Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 15.66Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.6 ±14.1

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 77.77Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 89.87Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 72.42Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4601, 144, 9139

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4601, 144, 9139

Auto

26.6 26%

Teleop

61.8 59%

Endgame

15.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3504, 1756, 379

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.1 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3504, 1756, 379

Auto

21.0 9%

Teleop

134.5 55%

Endgame

90.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score105.4pts

Blue projected score240.1pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -134.7
Score range: 65–280
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 223.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.1Season APEX520.6

26.6Auto21

61.8Teleop134.5

15.8Endgame90.8

14Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	21
teleop	12	207
endgame	14	75
foul	15	20
total	61	323

Result

Final score

61 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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