Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

171.38 – 380.68

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 69.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.8 ±14.5

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 48.06Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 76.9Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 46.42Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633.1 ±11.7

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 160.92Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 10.79Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 208.97Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3814, 3138, 10208

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3814, 3138, 10208

Auto

32.5 20%

Teleop

92.7 57%

Endgame

36.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4096, 8145, 2252

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.7 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4096, 8145, 2252

Auto

67.3 18%

Teleop

207.9 56%

Endgame

94.8 26%

Strengths

· 2252 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score171.4pts

Blue projected score380.7pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -209.3
Score range: 131–421
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 221.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.8Season APEX633.1

32.5Auto67.3

92.7Teleop207.9

36.9Endgame94.8

104Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	71
teleop	14	166
endgame	48	91
foul	0	0
total	85	328

Result

Final score

85 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 69.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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