Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

189.23 – 222.69

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

330 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 126.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.8 ±14.5

677Murphy's Outlaws

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX -16.33Rank 49Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 83.44Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 122.12Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 469.9 ±15.6

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 150.76Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 10.9Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

554The Blue Grease Crew

Provisional

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 61.03Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 677, 2228, 1038

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 677, 2228, 1038

Auto

31.7 17%

Teleop

112.2 60%

Endgame

43.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4611, 578, 554

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4611, 578, 554

Auto

37.2 17%

Teleop

129.7 60%

Endgame

49.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score189.2pts

Blue projected score222.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.5
Score range: 149–263
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 665 vs event baseline 220.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.8Season APEX469.9

31.7Auto37.2

112.2Teleop129.7

43.4Endgame49.6

113Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	59
teleop	164	202
endgame	121	74
foul	0	0
total	330	335

Result

Final score

330 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 126.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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