Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.81 – 201.61

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

187 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.4 ±12.2

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -33.53Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 118.7Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9075Redskin Robotics

Season APEX 157Event APEX 63.64Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.5 ±14.5

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 129.83Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 26.07Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 45.71Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6964, 117, 9075

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6964, 117, 9075

Auto

40.1 28%

Teleop

63.4 43%

Endgame

42.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4467, 1736, 9097

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4467, 1736, 9097

Auto

30.9 16%

Teleop

124.3 62%

Endgame

44.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score148.8pts

Blue projected score201.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.8
Score range: 109–242
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 220.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.4Season APEX402.5

40.1Auto30.9

63.4Teleop124.3

42.3Endgame44.1

54Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	36
teleop	99	77
endgame	0	83
foul	15	5
total	187	201

Result

Final score

187 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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