Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

190.92 – 330.83

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 339

Prediction correct · off by 9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.9 ±15

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 39Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

325Respawn Robotics

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 50.55Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 101.37Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 597.5 ±12.4

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -12.94Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 125.3Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 218.47Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6302, 325, 2614

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6302, 325, 2614

Auto

46.3 25%

Teleop

94.7 50%

Endgame

47.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 432, 2399, 4028

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 432, 2399, 4028

Auto

32.8 10%

Teleop

201.0 61%

Endgame

94.2 29%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score190.9pts

Blue projected score330.8pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -139.9
Score range: 151–371
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 520 vs event baseline 220.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.9Season APEX597.5

46.3Auto32.8

94.7Teleop201

47.9Endgame94.2

90Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	90
teleop	96	196
endgame	56	53
foul	0	0
total	181	339

Result

Final score

181 – 339

Prediction correct · off by 9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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