Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.83 – 193.68

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 454.4 ±14.5

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX 10.48Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 42.4Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 87.95Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.4 ±13.9

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 115.47Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX 26.94Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 51.27Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10207, 1014, 5667

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10207, 1014, 5667

Auto

15.6 11%

Teleop

89.1 62%

Endgame

39.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4145, 144, 10208

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4145, 144, 10208

Auto

61.9 34%

Teleop

99.3 55%

Endgame

18.8 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score140.8pts

Blue projected score193.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 80%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.8
Score range: 101–234
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 220.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

454.4Season APEX330.4

15.6Auto61.9

89.1Teleop99.3

39.9Endgame18.8

89Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	20
teleop	41	78
endgame	20	55
foul	0	60
total	112	213

Result

Final score

112 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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