Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.76 – 267.42

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.6 ±15

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 64.14Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

677Murphy's Outlaws

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX -17.49Rank 49Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 61.11Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.7 ±15

8243AstroCircuits

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 58.45Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 124.36Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 84.61Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10011, 677, 4601

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10011, 677, 4601

Auto

17.6 16%

Teleop

67.8 61%

Endgame

25.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8243, 1038, 3138

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8243, 1038, 3138

Auto

60.0 23%

Teleop

145.9 55%

Endgame

58.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score107.8pts

Blue projected score267.4pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -159.7
Score range: 68–307
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 221.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.6Season APEX379.7

17.6Auto60

67.8Teleop145.9

25.2Endgame58.9

27Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	39
teleop	43	167
endgame	44	35
foul	0	0
total	110	241

Result

Final score

110 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 14.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.