Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.62 – 149.73

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

291 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610 ±12.4

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 163.09Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 93.69Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 22.84Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 462.6 ±12.2

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -35.74Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 40.61Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 144.86Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4096, 1756, 451

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4096, 1756, 451

Auto

36.6 14%

Teleop

136.0 51%

Endgame

96.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6964, 9097, 4611

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6964, 9097, 4611

Auto

18.1 14%

Teleop

76.3 58%

Endgame

37.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.4 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score279.6pts

Blue projected score149.7pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.9
Score range: 110–320
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 221.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610Season APEX462.6

36.6Auto18.1

136Teleop76.3

96.3Endgame37.6

23Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	67
teleop	120	97
endgame	111	28
foul	0	0
total	291	192

Result

Final score

291 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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