Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.58 – 267.85

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 49.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335 ±14.5

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -21.44Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 39.22Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9075Redskin Robotics

Season APEX 157Event APEX 57.8Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.3 ±14.5

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 43.93Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 85.08Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 138.84Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 432, 4085, 9075

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 432, 4085, 9075

Auto

22.6 36%

Teleop

27.1 43%

Endgame

13.1 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2172, 3504, 6237

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.9 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2172, 3504, 6237

Auto

43.4 16%

Teleop

154.8 57%

Endgame

71.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score75.6pts

Blue projected score267.9pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -192.3
Score range: 36–308
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 220.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335Season APEX461.3

22.6Auto43.4

27.1Teleop154.8

13.1Endgame71.9

89Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	30
teleop	60	151
endgame	42	67
foul	15	0
total	154	248

Result

Final score

154 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 49.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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