Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

175.79 – 261.77

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

307 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 109.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369 ±14.5

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 83.79Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 32.51Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 59.49Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.2 ±15.9

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 108.92Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 135.24Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9139Reserve Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 17.61Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2614, 3814, 2603

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2614, 3814, 2603

Auto

55.0 32%

Teleop

86.7 51%

Endgame

28.1 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5811, 1787, 9139

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5811, 1787, 9139

Auto

36.9 14%

Teleop

139.2 55%

Endgame

79.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score175.8pts

Blue projected score261.8pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86
Score range: 137–301
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 657 vs event baseline 219.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369Season APEX451.2

55Auto36.9

86.7Teleop139.2

28.1Endgame79.2

71Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	40
teleop	182	208
endgame	59	102
foul	0	0
total	307	350

Result

Final score

307 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 109.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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