Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

351.1 – 329.37

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

460 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 81.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 639.8 ±11.7

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 135.16Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 207.63Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 8.31Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.9 ±13.5

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 221.86Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX 14.75Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 92.76Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2338, 4028, 8145

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2338, 4028, 8145

Auto

63.4 19%

Teleop

182.6 53%

Endgame

96.0 28%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2252, 9152, 2228

/ 100 compat

Projected

329.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2252, 9152, 2228

Auto

59.9 18%

Teleop

192.5 58%

Endgame

77.1 23%

Strengths

· 2252 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score351.1pts

Blue projected score329.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.7
Score range: 290–390
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 735 vs event baseline 216.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

639.8Season APEX509.9

63.4Auto59.9

182.6Teleop192.5

96Endgame77.1

50Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	38
teleop	278	155
endgame	125	57
foul	0	25
total	460	275

Result

Final score

460 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 81.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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