Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

273.07 – 202.66

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 103.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.1 ±13

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX 23.33Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 42.99Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 206.75Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.9 ±13.9

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 105.92Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 90.52Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 6.22Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 144, 4085, 695

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 144, 4085, 695

Auto

63.2 25%

Teleop

131.5 51%

Endgame

61.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2228, 2614, 8145

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2228, 2614, 8145

Auto

44.9 23%

Teleop

100.8 51%

Endgame

53.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score273.1pts

Blue projected score202.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.4
Score range: 158–318
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 250.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.1Season APEX322.9

63.2Auto44.9

131.5Teleop100.8

61.1Endgame53.8

81Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	39
teleop	57	74
endgame	12	33
foul	0	0
total	123	146

Result

Final score

123 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 103.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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