Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.72 – 241.41

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 8.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.8 ±18.2

10987The Legion

Provisional

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 21.34Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3484Short Circuit

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 12.06Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 84.32Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 456.6 ±13.5

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 164.45Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 40.02Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 36.94Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10987, 3484, 5667

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10987, 3484, 5667

Auto

24.7 20%

Teleop

63.9 52%

Endgame

34.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4096, 6302, 1736

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4096, 6302, 1736

Auto

41.8 18%

Teleop

134.5 57%

Endgame

61.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score117.7pts

Blue projected score241.4pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.7
Score range: 79–280
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 216.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.8Season APEX456.6

24.7Auto41.8

63.9Teleop134.5

34.6Endgame61.2

40Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	46
teleop	55	124
endgame	44	60
foul	0	0
total	124	230

Result

Final score

124 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 8.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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