Qualification · Qualification 58
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
117.58 – 97.66
56%44%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
166 – 84
Prediction correct · off by 31 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.4 ±16.5
Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 35.5Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 32.85Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94
554The Blue Grease Crew
Provisional
Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 49.23Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.9 ±14.5
Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 56.6Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -22.71Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88
Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 63.77Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4085, 9097, 554
39
/ 100 compatProjected
117.6 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 4085, 9097, 554
Auto
8.2 8%
Teleop
76.8 74%
Endgame
18.1 18%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 78%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10208, 432, 8243
34
/ 100 compatProjected
97.7 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 10208, 432, 8243
Auto
36.8 44%
Teleop
22.3 27%
Endgame
24.7 29%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 78%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.53
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score117.6pts
Blue projected score97.7pts
Red win probability56%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 78%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 19.9
- Score range
- 59–157
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
368.4Season APEX256.9
8.2Auto36.8
76.8Teleop22.3
18.1Endgame24.7
98Consistency63
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 35 | 21 |
| teleop | 80 | 31 |
| endgame | 21 | 17 |
| foul | 30 | 15 |
| total | 166 | 84 |
Result
Final score
166 – 84
Prediction correct · off by 31 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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