Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.56 – 180.94

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

272 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 116.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.2 ±13.9

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX -9.41Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 67.71Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 93.26Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.4 ±15

325Respawn Robotics

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 66.57Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

9075Redskin Robotics

Season APEX 157Event APEX 70.84Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 43.53Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10207, 2614, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10207, 2614, 5811

Auto

32.0 23%

Teleop

86.7 62%

Endgame

21.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 325, 9075, 451

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 325, 9075, 451

Auto

48.7 27%

Teleop

60.6 33%

Endgame

73.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score151.6pts

Blue projected score180.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.4
Score range: 113–220
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 219.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.2Season APEX349.4

32Auto48.7

86.7Teleop60.6

21.3Endgame73.7

65Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	38
teleop	145	18
endgame	76	13
foul	0	0
total	272	69

Result

Final score

272 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 116.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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