Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

267.03 – 296.75

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 82.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 557.6 ±13

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 183.12Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 59.89Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX 24.02Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 614.1 ±12.4

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 79.11Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 127.17Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 90.47Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 695, 2172, 9152

/ 100 compat

Projected

267 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 695, 2172, 9152

Auto

73.1 28%

Teleop

133.1 50%

Endgame

58.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3138, 4611, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3138, 4611, 1756

Auto

28.3 10%

Teleop

178.6 61%

Endgame

85.7 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score267pts

Blue projected score296.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.7
Score range: 228–336
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 563 vs event baseline 218.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

557.6Season APEX614.1

73.1Auto28.3

133.1Teleop178.6

58.9Endgame85.7

78Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	65
teleop	71	225
endgame	92	84
foul	0	5
total	184	379

Result

Final score

184 – 379

Prediction correct · off by 82.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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