Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

411.97 – 241.93

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

557 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 124 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 653.3 ±12.4

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 193.83Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 202.68Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX 15.46Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500.6 ±12.4

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 121.04Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 125.35Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2010The Lightning Bots

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX -4.46Rank 50Record 0-9-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4028, 2252, 144

/ 100 compat

Projected

412 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4028, 2252, 144

Auto

86.8 21%

Teleop

238.5 58%

Endgame

84.7 21%

Strengths

· 2252 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2399, 1787, 2010

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2399, 1787, 2010

Auto

36.2 15%

Teleop

126.8 53%

Endgame

74.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.7 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score412pts

Blue projected score241.9pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 170
Score range: 204–450
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 902 vs event baseline 213.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

653.3Season APEX500.6

86.8Auto36.2

238.5Teleop126.8

84.7Endgame74.6

36Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	36
teleop	352	179
endgame	118	125
foul	0	5
total	557	345

Result

Final score

557 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 124 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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