Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281 – 39.56

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 532.5 ±13.9

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 57.53Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 80.93Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 142.54Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 288.6 ±17.7

10987The Legion

Provisional

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 29.55Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

677Murphy's Outlaws

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX -5.87Rank 49Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 15.88Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1014, 379, 6237

/ 100 compat

Projected

281 pts

~2.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1014, 379, 6237

Auto

24.9 9%

Teleop

193.6 69%

Endgame

63.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10987, 677, 578

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10987, 677, 578

Auto

13.3 31%

Teleop

4.2 10%

Endgame

25.2 59%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.78 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score281pts

Blue projected score39.6pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 241.4
Score range: 1–320
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 215.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

532.5Season APEX288.6

24.9Auto13.3

193.6Teleop4.2

63.6Endgame25.2

50Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	9
teleop	159	13
endgame	65	9
foul	0	0
total	260	31

Result

Final score

260 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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