Qualification · Qualification 53
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
68.81 – 168.9
22%78%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
183 – 176
Prediction missed · off by 60.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.3 ±13.3
Season APEX 82Event APEX -43.62Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 143Event APEX 115.59Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 102.3Event APEX -3.16Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.1 ±17.7
9139Reserve Robotics
Provisional
Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 13.19Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71
Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 117.43Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 110Event APEX 38.28Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6964, 1038, 8145
37
/ 100 compatProjected
68.8 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 6964, 1038, 8145
Auto
22.7 34%
Teleop
37.2 55%
Endgame
7.2 11%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9139, 4145, 6302
50
/ 100 compatProjected
168.9 pts
~2.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 9139, 4145, 6302
Auto
18.8 12%
Teleop
72.8 45%
Endgame
69.2 43%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.35
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score68.8pts
Blue projected score168.9pts
Red win probability22%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 73%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -100.1
- Score range
- 30–208
- Upset likelihood
- 22%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
327.3Season APEX325.1
22.7Auto18.8
37.2Teleop72.8
7.2Endgame69.2
136Consistency54
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 39 | 32 |
| teleop | 104 | 109 |
| endgame | 40 | 35 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 183 | 176 |
Result
Final score
183 – 176
Prediction missed · off by 60.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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