Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

203.11 – 246.1

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

290 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 85 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.1 ±13.9

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 59.77Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 54.24Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 89.1Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 505.5 ±14.1

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 134.95Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 72.16Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 38.99Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10011, 2603, 2228

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10011, 2603, 2228

Auto

43.4 21%

Teleop

115.9 56%

Endgame

48.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 117, 4601, 3814

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 117, 4601, 3814

Auto

34.5 14%

Teleop

153.1 62%

Endgame

58.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score203.1pts

Blue projected score246.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43
Score range: 164–285
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 215.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.1Season APEX505.5

43.4Auto34.5

115.9Teleop153.1

48.1Endgame58.8

68Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	49
teleop	187	75
endgame	54	39
foul	0	0
total	290	163

Result

Final score

290 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 85 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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