Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

192.57 – 227.46

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.7 ±12.9

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 43.74Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 122.39Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3484Short Circuit

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 26.44Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.9 ±13.5

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX 19.67Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 125.06Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 82.73Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10208, 4611, 3484

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10208, 4611, 3484

Auto

26.1 14%

Teleop

92.4 50%

Endgame

66.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 144, 2399, 2614

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 144, 2399, 2614

Auto

37.1 16%

Teleop

147.9 64%

Endgame

47.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score192.6pts

Blue projected score227.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.9
Score range: 155–265
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 213.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.7Season APEX427.9

26.1Auto37.1

92.4Teleop147.9

66.9Endgame47.9

97Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	74
teleop	151	91
endgame	30	16
foul	15	30
total	227	211

Result

Final score

227 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.