Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

292.19 – 88.62

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

379 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 78.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 590.3 ±16.2

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 178.51Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

554The Blue Grease Crew

Provisional

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 34.4Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 79.28Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.9 ±15.6

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 25.6Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 79.18Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX -16.16Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4028, 554, 3138

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.2 pts

~2.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4028, 554, 3138

Auto

30.5 10%

Teleop

188.8 64%

Endgame

75.4 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 451, 379, 10207

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 451, 379, 10207

Auto

0.0 0%

Teleop

59.0 56%

Endgame

46.1 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.76 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score292.2pts

Blue projected score88.6pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203.6
Score range: 51–330
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 538 vs event baseline 212.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

590.3Season APEX401.9

30.5Auto0

188.8Teleop59

75.4Endgame46.1

102Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	15
teleop	206	85
endgame	102	59
foul	0	0
total	379	159

Result

Final score

379 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 78.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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