Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.66 – 195.94

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 98.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.4 ±14.5

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX 23.11Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 159.25Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 39.3Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.9 ±12.9

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 145.64Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 69.1Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -18.8Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9152, 6237, 578

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9152, 6237, 578

Auto

44.8 21%

Teleop

115.7 54%

Endgame

54.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1787, 6302, 6964

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1787, 6302, 6964

Auto

27.0 14%

Teleop

99.4 52%

Endgame

63.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score221.7pts

Blue projected score195.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.7
Score range: 157–261
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 214.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.4Season APEX401.9

44.8Auto27

115.7Teleop99.4

54.8Endgame63.5

56Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	10
teleop	79	21
endgame	33	31
foul	0	0
total	159	62

Result

Final score

159 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 98.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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