Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.07 – 196.72

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 82.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.1 ±15.6

677Murphy's Outlaws

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX -6.01Rank 49Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

8243AstroCircuits

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 76.96Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 37.12Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 524.8 ±13

3324The Metrobots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX -25.03Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9075Redskin Robotics

Season APEX 157Event APEX 66.15Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 155.6Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 677, 8243, 3814

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 677, 8243, 3814

Auto

38.1 37%

Teleop

40.6 39%

Endgame

24.3 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3324, 9075, 695

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3324, 9075, 695

Auto

50.6 26%

Teleop

79.2 40%

Endgame

67.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.1pts

Blue projected score196.7pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.6
Score range: 69–236
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 217.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.1Season APEX524.8

38.1Auto50.6

40.6Teleop79.2

24.3Endgame67.9

74Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	75
teleop	37	158
endgame	16	95
foul	0	0
total	74	328

Result

Final score

74 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 82.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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