Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.34 – 451.11

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 417

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.3 ±15

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 73.19Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -9.89Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 88.04Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 652.2 ±12.4

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 158.05Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 98.5Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 194.56Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2172, 432, 4601

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2172, 432, 4601

Auto

32.0 21%

Teleop

91.9 61%

Endgame

25.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 117, 5667, 2252

/ 100 compat

Projected

451.1 pts

~2.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 117, 5667, 2252

Auto

75.4 17%

Teleop

253.6 57%

Endgame

117.3 26%

Strengths

· 2252 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score151.3pts

Blue projected score451.1pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -299.8
Score range: 112–490
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 493 vs event baseline 215.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.3Season APEX652.2

32Auto75.4

91.9Teleop253.6

25.8Endgame117.3

53Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	73
teleop	28	236
endgame	26	108
foul	0	0
total	76	417

Result

Final score

76 – 417

Prediction correct · off by 54.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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