Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.16 – 330.5

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 83.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.8 ±14.5

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 21.78Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 21.25Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

325Respawn Robotics

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 64.13Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.4 ±12.8

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 99.39Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 111.17Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 119.94Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1736, 4085, 325

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1736, 4085, 325

Auto

25.4 25%

Teleop

31.6 31%

Endgame

45.9 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2603, 1756, 1038

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.5 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2603, 1756, 1038

Auto

53.9 17%

Teleop

179.0 55%

Endgame

91.9 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score107.2pts

Blue projected score330.5pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 80%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -223.3
Score range: 68–370
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 215.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.8Season APEX522.4

25.4Auto53.9

31.6Teleop179

45.9Endgame91.9

186Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	42
teleop	105	140
endgame	13	35
foul	0	0
total	161	217

Result

Final score

161 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 83.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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