Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.29 – 171.27

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.5 ±15

2010The Lightning Bots

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 34.52Rank 50Record 0-9-0Status establishedConfidence 86

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 52.61Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 47.16Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562 ±14.1

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX 19.58Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX -19.59Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 171.28Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2010, 578, 3504

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2010, 578, 3504

Auto

39.9 29%

Teleop

46.6 34%

Endgame

51.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9152, 10207, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9152, 10207, 4096

Auto

61.8 42%

Teleop

66.5 45%

Endgame

19.5 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.3pts

Blue projected score171.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37
Score range: 95–210
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 217.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.5Season APEX562

39.9Auto61.8

46.6Teleop66.5

51.8Endgame19.5

107Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	18
teleop	30	119
endgame	36	64
foul	0	0
total	81	201

Result

Final score

81 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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