Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.21 – 185.25

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 81 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.2 ±14.1

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 118.55Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3484Short Circuit

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 6.5Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX -0.84Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429.1 ±13.9

9075Redskin Robotics

Season APEX 157Event APEX 80.91Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 21.33Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 83.01Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1787, 3484, 144

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1787, 3484, 144

Auto

46.5 35%

Teleop

81.7 61%

Endgame

6.0 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9075, 9097, 10011

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9075, 9097, 10011

Auto

44.9 28%

Teleop

61.9 39%

Endgame

53.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score124.2pts

Blue projected score185.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61
Score range: 85–224
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 218.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.2Season APEX429.1

46.5Auto44.9

81.7Teleop61.9

6Endgame53.1

54Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	14
teleop	136	95
endgame	72	24
foul	0	0
total	234	133

Result

Final score

234 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 81 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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