Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.88 – 200.4

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

204 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 7.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.8 ±14.1

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 115.28Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 23.34Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 76.26Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.7 ±13.9

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 124.71Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 40.05Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 35.64Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4611, 451, 6302

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4611, 451, 6302

Auto

30.6 14%

Teleop

89.3 41%

Endgame

95.7 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4145, 1014, 3814

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4145, 1014, 3814

Auto

25.0 13%

Teleop

119.9 65%

Endgame

40.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score214.9pts

Blue projected score200.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.5
Score range: 161–254
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 218.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.8Season APEX439.7

30.6Auto25

89.3Teleop119.9

95.7Endgame40.9

91Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	26
teleop	129	146
endgame	59	33
foul	0	0
total	204	205

Result

Final score

204 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 7.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.