Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

161.79 – 254.36

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

167 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.6 ±14.5

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 116.91Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 29.49Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2010The Lightning Bots

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 15.39Rank 50Record 0-9-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.4 ±17

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 142.13Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

554The Blue Grease Crew

Provisional

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 61.22Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

325Respawn Robotics

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 51.01Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4145, 1736, 2010

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4145, 1736, 2010

Auto

42.8 28%

Teleop

74.1 49%

Endgame

35.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6237, 554, 325

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6237, 554, 325

Auto

47.0 19%

Teleop

156.7 63%

Endgame

44.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score161.8pts

Blue projected score254.4pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.6
Score range: 117–299
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 250.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.6Season APEX435.4

42.8Auto47

74.1Teleop156.7

35Endgame44.3

139Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	45
teleop	90	149
endgame	26	72
foul	0	0
total	167	266

Result

Final score

167 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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