Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

218.6 – 271.57

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

294 – 464

Prediction correct · off by 133.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.9 ±13.5

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 100.33Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8243AstroCircuits

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 54.58Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 63.69Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 654.4 ±12.4

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 153.77Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 52.93Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 64.87Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1756, 8243, 2614

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1756, 8243, 2614

Auto

30.0 13%

Teleop

108.9 48%

Endgame

89.0 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2252, 379, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2252, 379, 2338

Auto

50.3 18%

Teleop

134.3 49%

Endgame

87.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score218.6pts

Blue projected score271.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53
Score range: 181–310
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 758 vs event baseline 209.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416.9Season APEX654.4

30Auto50.3

108.9Teleop134.3

89Endgame87.4

19Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	69
teleop	155	263
endgame	67	132
foul	15	0
total	294	464

Result

Final score

294 – 464

Prediction correct · off by 133.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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