Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

349.99 – 164.74

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

389 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 582.5 ±12.9

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 76.18Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 109.95Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 163.86Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.4 ±16.5

554The Blue Grease Crew

Provisional

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 46.04Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 25.6Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 93.1Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4601, 5811, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

350 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4601, 5811, 4096

Auto

54.9 16%

Teleop

189.2 57%

Endgame

89.3 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 554, 1736, 2172

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 554, 1736, 2172

Auto

35.7 21%

Teleop

107.0 63%

Endgame

27.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.63 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score350pts

Blue projected score164.7pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 185.3
Score range: 127–388
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 488 vs event baseline 209.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

582.5Season APEX336.4

54.9Auto35.7

189.2Teleop107

89.3Endgame27.5

95Consistency165

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	9
teleop	251	84
endgame	77	6
foul	0	0
total	389	99

Result

Final score

389 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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