Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.73 – 180.98

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 82.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.5 ±12.9

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 50.34Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -25.71Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 89.1Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.7 ±14.5

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 81.59Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 69.05Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 30.34Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3138, 6964, 2399

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3138, 6964, 2399

Auto

12.6 11%

Teleop

80.6 68%

Endgame

25.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2228, 5667, 4085

/ 100 compat

Projected

181 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2228, 5667, 4085

Auto

44.3 25%

Teleop

82.0 46%

Endgame

53.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score113.7pts

Blue projected score181pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 80%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.2
Score range: 76–219
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 208.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.5Season APEX314.7

12.6Auto44.3

80.6Teleop82

25.7Endgame53.3

159Consistency172

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	30
teleop	152	123
endgame	91	54
foul	0	0
total	253	207

Result

Final score

253 – 207

Prediction missed · off by 82.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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