Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.48 – 120.96

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

272 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 4.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.6 ±14.5

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 132.14Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 149.64Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -9.3Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289 ±13.9

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 54.17Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3324The Metrobots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX -45.11Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 111.9Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1038, 6237, 432

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1038, 6237, 432

Auto

32.7 12%

Teleop

174.4 65%

Endgame

61.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10208, 3324, 2603

/ 100 compat

Projected

121 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10208, 3324, 2603

Auto

17.5 15%

Teleop

75.0 65%

Endgame

23.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score272.5pts

Blue projected score121pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 151.5
Score range: 83–310
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 208.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.6Season APEX289

32.7Auto17.5

174.4Teleop75

61Endgame23.5

82Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	43
teleop	154	51
endgame	56	36
foul	15	0
total	272	130

Result

Final score

272 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 4.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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