Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.87 – 176.92

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

220 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.1 ±13.5

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 153.23Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 20.07Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 41.57Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 444.8 ±14.1

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 123.62Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

677Murphy's Outlaws

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX -4.7Rank 49Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

325Respawn Robotics

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 58Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 117, 8145, 3504

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 117, 8145, 3504

Auto

32.2 16%

Teleop

133.3 66%

Endgame

37.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4611, 677, 325

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4611, 677, 325

Auto

38.4 21%

Teleop

112.7 60%

Endgame

36.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score214.9pts

Blue projected score176.9pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38
Score range: 139–253
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 208.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.1Season APEX444.8

32.2Auto38.4

133.3Teleop112.7

37.6Endgame36.1

121Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	31
teleop	103	45
endgame	75	100
foul	0	25
total	220	201

Result

Final score

220 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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