Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.43 – 263.66

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.2 ±15.6

144Operation Orange

Season APEX 112.7Event APEX 13.86Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2010The Lightning Bots

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 40.99Rank 50Record 0-9-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 77.58Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497.9 ±13.7

8243AstroCircuits

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 53.78Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 111.29Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 98.59Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 144, 2010, 4467

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 144, 2010, 4467

Auto

39.5 27%

Teleop

90.2 61%

Endgame

17.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8243, 695, 6302

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.7 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8243, 695, 6302

Auto

50.5 19%

Teleop

102.1 39%

Endgame

109.7 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.4pts

Blue projected score263.7pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131.2
Score range: 95–301
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 207.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.2Season APEX497.9

39.5Auto50.5

90.2Teleop102.1

17.3Endgame109.7

126Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	76
teleop	78	139
endgame	22	98
foul	0	0
total	146	313

Result

Final score

146 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 31.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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