Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

361.5 – 213.75

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

271 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 85.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.6 ±12.8

578Fairport Robotics

Season APEX 77Event APEX 74.11Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 118.23Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 169.16Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.8 ±13.9

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 37.84Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 53.54Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 122.37Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 578, 10011, 2252

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 578, 10011, 2252

Auto

63.1 18%

Teleop

201.6 57%

Endgame

90.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1736, 451, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1736, 451, 5811

Auto

30.7 14%

Teleop

113.3 51%

Endgame

80.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.5 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score361.5pts

Blue projected score213.8pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.8
Score range: 177–399
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 208.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.6Season APEX356.8

63.1Auto30.7

201.6Teleop113.3

90.5Endgame80.3

84Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	22
teleop	135	51
endgame	81	61
foul	0	0
total	271	134

Result

Final score

271 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 85.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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