Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.89 – 226.39

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 23

Prediction missed · off by 119.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.9 ±13.9

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 25.79Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -33.71Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 83.81Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 486 ±14.1

3484Short Circuit

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 61.45Rank 36Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 116.68Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX 48.26Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4085, 6964, 4601

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4085, 6964, 4601

Auto

12.8 17%

Teleop

48.3 64%

Endgame

14.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3484, 2338, 10207

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3484, 2338, 10207

Auto

23.9 11%

Teleop

100.9 47%

Endgame

90.7 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score75.9pts

Blue projected score226.4pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150.5
Score range: 38–264
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 212.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285.9Season APEX486

12.8Auto23.9

48.3Teleop100.9

14.7Endgame90.7

172Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	23
teleop	50	0
endgame	37	0
foul	10	0
total	112	23

Result

Final score

112 – 23

Prediction missed · off by 119.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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