Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

196.34 – 265.36

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

173 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493 ±16

554The Blue Grease Crew

Provisional

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 40.01Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 112.75Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 43.58Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 507.1 ±13.5

9075Redskin Robotics

Season APEX 157Event APEX 110.35Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 94.93Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX 60.08Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 554, 2603, 1014

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 554, 2603, 1014

Auto

26.9 14%

Teleop

116.6 61%

Endgame

48.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9075, 2399, 9152

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.4 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9075, 2399, 9152

Auto

47.6 18%

Teleop

106.3 41%

Endgame

103.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score196.3pts

Blue projected score265.4pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69
Score range: 157–304
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 214.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493Season APEX507.1

26.9Auto47.6

116.6Teleop106.3

48.2Endgame103.7

132Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	42
teleop	140	118
endgame	16	17
foul	0	0
total	173	177

Result

Final score

173 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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