Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164.16 – 187.46

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 188

Prediction missed · off by 19.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.5 ±16.9

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 127.85Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX 18.29Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10987The Legion

Provisional

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 18.02Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442 ±13.5

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 37.44Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 45.66Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 104.36Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2399, 10207, 10987

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2399, 10207, 10987

Auto

29.3 17%

Teleop

96.1 57%

Endgame

43.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3814, 2172, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3814, 2172, 1756

Auto

20.0 11%

Teleop

105.6 56%

Endgame

62.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score164.2pts

Blue projected score187.5pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.3
Score range: 119–232
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 250.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439.5Season APEX442

29.3Auto20

96.1Teleop105.6

43.3Endgame62.9

65Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	18
teleop	116	105
endgame	75	65
foul	0	0
total	202	188

Result

Final score

202 – 188

Prediction missed · off by 19.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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