Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.19 – 111.74

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 57.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463.1 ±13.5

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 27.52Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 44.36Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 140.31Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.9 ±18.2

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -6.54Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 74.29Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10987The Legion

Provisional

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 43.99Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8145, 3138, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8145, 3138, 1787

Auto

47.6 24%

Teleop

105.6 52%

Endgame

49.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 432, 3504, 10987

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 432, 3504, 10987

Auto

8.3 7%

Teleop

61.0 54%

Endgame

42.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score212.2pts

Blue projected score111.7pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.5
Score range: 73–251
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 218.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463.1Season APEX340.9

47.6Auto8.3

105.6Teleop61

49.3Endgame42.8

123Consistency182

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	17
teleop	105	5
endgame	28	5
foul	0	0
total	182	27

Result

Final score

182 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 57.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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