Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.75 – 53.53

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 120

Prediction missed · off by 144.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.1 ±13.9

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 6.66Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 36.11Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX -1.02Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261 ±15

325Respawn Robotics

Season APEX 82.3Event APEX 52.53Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 57.95Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3324The Metrobots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX -56.95Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 379, 2228, 10208

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 379, 2228, 10208

Auto

25.4 53%

Teleop

26.0 55%

Endgame

-3.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 325, 2172, 3324

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 325, 2172, 3324

Auto

14.4 21%

Teleop

39.8 59%

Endgame

13.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score41.7pts

Blue projected score53.5pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.8
Score range: 3–93
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 218.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.1Season APEX261

25.4Auto14.4

26Teleop39.8

-3.9Endgame13.8

108Consistency170

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	40
teleop	141	49
endgame	81	31
foul	0	0
total	265	120

Result

Final score

265 – 120

Prediction missed · off by 144.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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