Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

280.07 – 77.06

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

382 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 80 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567.6 ±12.8

9097MachBusters

Season APEX 140.9Event APEX 21.75Rank 17Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 147.7Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 110.62Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.2 ±17.7

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 66.06Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9139Reserve Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 0.27Rank 47Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

677Murphy's Outlaws

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 10.73Rank 49Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9097, 4096, 4145

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.1 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9097, 4096, 4145

Auto

63.8 24%

Teleop

126.0 47%

Endgame

80.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2614, 9139, 677

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2614, 9139, 677

Auto

12.4 17%

Teleop

29.5 41%

Endgame

30.8 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.63 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score280.1pts

Blue projected score77.1pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203
Score range: 37–320
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 219.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567.6Season APEX295.2

63.8Auto12.4

126Teleop29.5

80.3Endgame30.8

120Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	14
teleop	157	3
endgame	88	2
foul	70	0
total	382	19

Result

Final score

382 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 80 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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