Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.58 – 310.13

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

234 – 509

Prediction correct · off by 103.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.9 ±15

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 103.86Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3814PiBotics

Season APEX 105.5Event APEX 47.69Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 74.03Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 709.6 ±11.7

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 113.05Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 128.2Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 68.88Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1038, 3814, 5667

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1038, 3814, 5667

Auto

38.1 17%

Teleop

96.9 43%

Endgame

88.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6237, 4028, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6237, 4028, 1756

Auto

36.9 12%

Teleop

197.4 64%

Endgame

72.9 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score225.6pts

Blue projected score310.1pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.5
Score range: 188–348
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 743 vs event baseline 213.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.9Season APEX709.6

38.1Auto36.9

96.9Teleop197.4

88.2Endgame72.9

164Consistency175

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	58
teleop	142	300
endgame	27	146
foul	5	5
total	234	509

Result

Final score

234 – 509

Prediction correct · off by 103.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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