Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

190.45 – 310.61

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

310 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 77.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 568.9 ±12.4

6302Greeneville High School Robotics

Season APEX 110Event APEX 48.36Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 81.28Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 60.81Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 609.8 ±11.7

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 114.43Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 84.75Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 111.43Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6302, 2338, 2399

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6302, 2338, 2399

Auto

30.5 17%

Teleop

60.3 34%

Endgame

88.0 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5811, 695, 10011

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5811, 695, 10011

Auto

72.2 24%

Teleop

164.9 54%

Endgame

66.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score190.5pts

Blue projected score310.6pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.2
Score range: 152–349
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 656 vs event baseline 208.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

568.9Season APEX609.8

30.5Auto72.2

60.3Teleop164.9

88Endgame66.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	57
teleop	169	181
endgame	113	93
foul	0	15
total	310	346

Result

Final score

310 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 77.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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