Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.81 – 137.76

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.8 ±13.5

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 9.23Rank 32Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

432The Final Countdown

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX -2.22Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 159.8Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.9 ±15

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 48.27Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10207Doomsday Engineering

Season APEX 143.1Event APEX 54.78Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8243AstroCircuits

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 34.71Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1736, 432, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1736, 432, 1787

Auto

46.6 28%

Teleop

82.1 49%

Endgame

38.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2228, 10207, 8243

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2228, 10207, 8243

Auto

29.5 21%

Teleop

73.0 53%

Endgame

36.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.8pts

Blue projected score137.8pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.1
Score range: 100–205
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 209.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.8Season APEX341.9

46.6Auto29.5

82.1Teleop73

38.1Endgame36.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	37
teleop	103	52
endgame	46	45
foul	0	0
total	175	134

Result

Final score

175 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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