Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.38 – 133.86

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 252

Prediction missed · off by 126.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.3 ±14.5

677Murphy's Outlaws

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 68.03Rank 49Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 1.55Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 110.8Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.5 ±15.6

4601Circuit Birds

Season APEX 129.6Event APEX 54.03Rank 27Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9152Rat Fight

Season APEX 142.5Event APEX 46.87Rank 26Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 32.96Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 677, 10208, 451

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 677, 10208, 451

Auto

50.8 29%

Teleop

87.1 49%

Endgame

40.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4601, 9152, 4467

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4601, 9152, 4467

Auto

20.1 16%

Teleop

73.4 57%

Endgame

34.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score180.4pts

Blue projected score133.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.5
Score range: 96–218
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 212.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.3Season APEX463.5

50.8Auto20.1

87.1Teleop73.4

40.3Endgame34.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	52
teleop	10	135
endgame	24	65
foul	0	0
total	45	252

Result

Final score

45 – 252

Prediction missed · off by 126.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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